+1 301.209.3100, 1305 Walt Whitman Road But there are better questions to ask. Some occupations have a shortage of qualified talent, such as nuclear and electrical engineering Ph.D.’… After the bubble burst, wages fell, followed by a decline in the number of computer science graduates. In fact, in Arizona, nearly 23 percent of teacher vacancies remained unfilled as of January 2019. On the other hand, authoritative voices on shortages and the constant repetition of the claims are proving compelling enough for policymakers. Many who believe there is a shortage of STEM workers point to a widely cited survey commissioned by the Bayer Corp. in 2013. It’s hard to imagine, but there’s a significant shortage of workers with STEM credentials and skills needed to fill the STEM jobs that are available even in this downturned economy. China also loomed large, with committee leaders noting it has been on pace to soon surpass the U.S. in total R&D spending. In the course of a single year, 2004, the legislatures in 40 states introduced a total of more than 200 bills restricting offshoring (as compared with legislation proposed in only 4 states the year before). Remarkably, there is no in-depth research addressing this question. Why does this particular labor market fail to operate as it should? Three Republican members also asked witnesses how the government should respond to Chinese espionage, a topic that has come to the fore in Congress over the past year. For its part, the IT industry was composed of several different segments: a product market that depended on a high-skill craft production model and a large services market that was a mix of legions of programmers performing routine development and higher-skilled analysts and custom systems and services developers. “We need to break down the barrier between the ivory tower of academia, the hallways of Silicon Valley, and the Main Street of Cheyenne, Oklahoma,” he said. Hal Salzman, Daniel Kuehn, and B. Lindsay Lowell. Remarkably, the number of STEM majors, from first year through graduation, expands rather than shrinks. “There is nothing more disruptive to the U.S. science enterprise than huge swings in science budgets,” she remarked. In fact, the nation graduates more than two times as many STEM students each year as find jobs in STEM fields. 555 N. Central Ave., Suite 302, Phoenix, AZ 85004-1248. Why is the widely accepted view of shortage at odds with study after study that has found the U.S. science and engineering supply to be strong and improving? Even in the demanding field of engineering at a top school such as Stanford University, one of every nine graduates did not start as an engineering major but transferred into the program after the first year. IT, the industry most vocal about its inability to find enough workers, hires only two-thirds of each year’s graduating class of bachelor’s degree computer scientists. “We have no line of sight today on how to replace them,” he warned. On one hand, the claims of shortages and of an apparent failure of the market to produce enough workers do not appear to be supported by the available evidence. “What’s happening right now is that this boundary between sensitive information versus open information is becoming blurrier, and I think the highly competitive interaction between the U.S. and China is making us relook at the risk proposition,” he continued. It may not be surprising, then, that some STEM students are showing a decline in persistence to stay in the field. Immigration from high-skill diasporas has varied from accomplished Soviet émigrés fleeing a crumbling régime to Nazi scientists who were extracted from Germany as part of Operation Paperclip to advance strategic and military advantage in the Cold War. Immigration policy addresses broad issues of diversity, equity, opportunity, and the long-term vibrancy of the United States. Research on immigration identifies a range of positive (and some negative) impacts, and the numerous examples of immigrant-founded companies and illustrious achievements of immigrants across different areas, from the arts to the sciences to business, testify to the benefits of a society that welcomes them. With current policies that provide guest workers in numbers equal to as much two-thirds of new jobs in IT, it becomes less important for the IT industry to use the domestic market to supply its workforce. Of the students tested, about 25% will graduate with a four-year college degree; of those students, about 17% will graduate in a STEM field; and of those students, about half will enter a STEM or STEM-related field. More alarming is that the workforce skills gap is only expected to worsen over time. Conversely, AAF projects a surplus of almost 400,000 U.S. citizen STEM workers in occupations related to computer, mathematics, and life, physical, and social science. Women and Men in STEM Often at Odds Over Workplace Equity 1. But the evidence for this claim fails for a number of reasons. STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) debates underway today in the United States: Is there, in fact, a STEM workforce shortage in the country or not? He suggested the current arrangement in which universities focus on basic research and industry focuses on later-stage R&D has exacerbated mismatches between training and workforce needs. To sustain support for such spending, Lucas continued, Congress needs to do a better job of explaining the value of science to the public. I think one of my big concerns now is that we’re reacting to the concern, but really without a policy strategy.”, Later asked by Rep. Michael Cloud (R-TX) how the U.S. should react to persistent cybertheft by China, Gallagher contrasted the “exfiltration of data and information” with the “exfiltration of talent,” saying he worries far more about the latter. College Park, MD 20740 Another important distinction is the difference between the “push” and “pull” drivers of immigration. Notably, the National Research Council in 2005 issued a report called Rising Above the Gathering Storm, which identified a need for the country to invest more in research and innovation and to train more people to do the work. Distinguishing between labor policy and immigration policy is key to analyzing why the history of benefits from immigration is unlikely to occur from the new guest worker policies in some of the legislation now being developed. Thus, guest worker policy is vastly different from broader immigration policy, and the contributions of immigrants are also different from the impact of a large flow of high-skill guest workers targeted to one or several industries, particularly in the absence of compelling evidence of shortages. The second area to consider is the argument that even if STEM graduates are not employed in a STEM job, there are individual and social benefits to obtaining a STEM degree. © 2020 Arizona State University. The national teacher shortage is no secret. Instead, the United States has a fluid system in which career paths can be pursued through a range of disciplines and educational experiences. For all the unknowns and uncertainties of labor market projections and supply/demand analyses, there is still a substantial and solid body of research and experience that should caution policymakers about being swayed by conventional wisdom offered by prominent advocates for a particular policy that may have limited or short-term benefit and that can have deeply negative and longlasting impacts. Computer science graduates in 1998 often looked to Microsoft as the hottest employer in town—and as it turned out, for good reason. These examples illustrate the quandary of trying to understand the STEM shortage debates. Today, most policymakers and industry leaders are united in their belief that the United States faces a high-tech talent crisis. In September 2012, Hewlett Packard announced that it planned to lay off 15,000 workers by the year’s end, reaching a total of 120,000 layoffs over the past decade. Source: National Center for Education Statistics. While STEM workers tend to be highly educated, roughly a third have not completed a bachelor’s … [If we fail] to do this, we risk severe oversupply or shortages in science and technology workforce,” he said. But guest workers targeted to a specific industry sector and filling the vast majority of openings, unlike their immigrant counterparts, are likely to have a significantly negative impact on STEM (and particularly IT) labor markets, occupations, and careers. Apart from there being no indication that Apple actually tried to search for engineers, or that it actually has a problem attracting engineers, some simple math suggests that the plausibility of this claim should be reconsidered. Before offering a more detailed analysis, it is worthwhile to examine two widely cited claims about shortages: the headline-grabbing statement by the former head of Apple, Steve Jobs, to President Barack Obama about an engineering shortage, and the recent claim by the president’s Jobs and Competitiveness Council that the economy needs to produce an additional 10,000 engineers each year to address a shortage and thereby s… Even if the company was willing to sacrifice its entire profit for an act of patriotism, would it have been hamstrung by an engineering shortage? All Rights Reserved. As a result, the number of graduates more than doubled. Can beefsteak tomatoes replace steak itself? Guest workers provide benefits to the companies that hire them in the form of lower wages, but there is little evidence to suggest that they strengthen the nation’s science, engineering, or technology workforces. Finally, policymakers and industry leaders may want to reconsider the notion that science and engineering development and national competitiveness are best served by such a concentrated focus on one or just a few disciplines or workforces. The industry responded to the challenges in similar fashion as its forbears: It trained legions of capable, if unskilled, workers in the interior (but of India, not the United States) and imported guest workers, often by routing them through colleges that could give them the industry-relevant skills to be employable. The various cases of notable immigrants typically involve those who came to become permanent members of the nation, and they generally migrated as children and grew up as part of U.S. society. The STEM workforce in the US has long been home to a significant portion of talented foreign-born workers – about 20-25% according to the American Immigration Council. Respond to the ideas raised in this essay by writing to [email protected]. It is, in fact, the important role of immigration to the nation—socially and economically—that may be undermined by high-skill guest worker programs. Students Longitudinal Studies, Second Follow-ups (BPS:04/09); tabulations by authors ). By 2002, a future with the company brought a good salary (but not instant millions) and membership on a team that not only could not develop the next New Thing but couldn’t match the achievements of its competitors. And before him, Edwin Land, a pioneering figure behind Polaroid and a developer of the nation’s first advanced aerial imaging technology, as well as a key adviser in founding NASA, pointed to the importance of “standing at the intersection of humanities and science.”. Since then, wages have stayed well below their earlier peak and now hover around wage levels of the late 1990s. Employment has declined and wage growth has stalled for l ife science occupations in recent decades. Middle age had crept up on Microsoft and other information technology (IT) companies just a quarter century after the dawn of the microcomputer era. Foreign-born scientists and engineers currently comprise a considerable fraction of the U.S. Gallagher said that competitor nations have made concerted efforts to build their domestic research bases by emulating the U.S. system and are successfully drawing talent away from the U.S. In fact, it has quite the opposite effect. While the US Congress passes secretive, sloppy funding legislation and patent offices in different jurisdictions craft incoherent policies, a hot debate plays out about whether, when, and under what conditions it might make sense to introduce heritable forms of genome editing into human beings. Employers have been complaining about a shortage of skilled workers in recent years, particularly workers with advanced degrees in STEM fields. States Needing STEM Workers. The shortage of U.S. citizens working in health care, architecture, and engineering STEM occupations is expected to reach over 1.2 million by 2024. Henry Ford also faced a skills shortage when developing plans to produce automobiles in Michigan. Much has been made on either side of the debate. Bayer releases Facts of Science Education Survey which finds STEM Workforce Shortage is not a myth. He said the statistic that currently worries him the most is that approximately half of U.S. workers in industry that have science degrees will be eligible for retirement in a decade. Failing to find current shortages, the argument then is turned to the qualifications of “STEM-eligible” students, and specifically to the idea that U.S. students, on average, do not perform well on international tests. Workers in a Global Job Market,”, B. Lindsay Lowell and Harold Salzman, “Making the Grade,”. Indeed, this loose coupling of students’ initial disciplinary choices and ultimate career paths might be expected, because college is often a period of exploration. Along with these challenges, the industry faced steeply increasing salaries, further exacerbated by the emergence of the dot-com bubble, which had distorted this labor market by the lure of turning its workforce into nearly instant millionaires and creating a surge in labor demand that was not sustainable over the longer term. At the turn of the 20th century, U.S. industrialists were faced with skill shortages. Citing the recent government shutdown as a prime example of such a shock, she noted the National Academies is considering doing a rigorous assessment of its impacts. This enduring perception of a crisis of supply might logically lead to some obvious questions. As of 2015, there were 19 open STEM jobs for every one unemployed STEM worker. Research community leaders warned the House Science Committee last week that the U.S. could face an acute shortage or oversupply of STEM workers if it does not carefully manage investments in R&D, remain welcoming to international talent, and better develop its domestic workforce. Established IT companies found that they could no longer attract the young, bright, hot graduates from the top universities, who instead flocked to new startups. Analyses typically compare STEM graduate salaries with those of all graduates, or STEM occupations with all occupations. For instance, the issue was raised in the Government’s 2017 Industrial Strategy, which quoted a CBI survey showing that 40% of employers reported a shortage of STEM graduates as being a key barrier in recruiting appropriate staff. And the presidential candidate John Kerry, in a speech to his supporters, denounced offshoring firms and promised to eliminate tax loopholes for any “Benedict Arnold company or C.E.O. It may be that STEM graduates are, on average, higher-performing and go into higher-paying fields than those chosen by other students. “What Shortages? He found that the students not entering a STEM occupation went into fields that paid more than STEM occupations. Or consider General Electric’s recent relocation of its 115-year-old Xx-ray headquarters from Wisconsin to Beijing, after earlier expansion of its corporate R&D labs in India and China. Historically, the nation’s essential experience (for other than Native Americans) is the immigrant story in nearly everyone’s family history, intertwined with the country’s success as the beneficiary of talented immigrants fleeing social, economic, and political unrest in their home countries and seeking the opportunities particular to U.S. society. In the IT industry, a common view among managers and workers is that the occupation was great for their generation but the ride is now over, and they would not recommend an IT or engineering career to their sons and daughters. Committee Chair Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-TX) opened the hearing by citing various benchmarks of U.S. competitiveness in science and technology. The report underscores that a consensus definition of the STEM workforce does not exist. But again, the evidence is thin, at best. [Restricted data file]. Committee Ranking Member Frank Lucas (R-OK) likewise expressed concern about China potentially surpassing the U.S. Opposing sides paint a polarizing picture: Is there a “STEM crisis” or a “STEM surplus”? Nearly 70% of employers reported talent shortages in 2019, a jump of 17 points in only one year and more than three times higher than a decade ago. Within four years of joining the company, they would be part of a team that ushered in an operating system used the world over and become millionaires along the way. Unfilled STEM jobs are bad for business. A final claim is that the success of the United States as an immigrant nation speaks to the benefits of an expansive guest worker program. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education. A quick scan of the top-performing countries on education tests makes this apparent, because the list contains Slovenia, Estonia, the Czech Republic, and many other former Soviet countries, but not Brazil, Chile, or Israel. Clearly, there's a significant disconnect occurring when some of the most vocal advocates of STEM training are culling significant portions of their STEM workforce. It is thus a rather curious proposition that companies are seeking more STEM employees at the same time that they are laying off huge numbers of STEM workers and increasing the employment of offshore STEM workers who earn a fraction of U.S. salaries. But the current bottom line is that there is little compelling evidence to support efforts to herd into STEM majors any students who do not have an abiding interest in a STEM career. Gallagher also highlighted how a lack of long-term planning in federal budgeting can create mismatches between supply and demand for STEM workers. http://conference.nber.org/confer/2011/SEWPf11/Lynn_Salzman.pdf, Ron Hira, “U.S. However, the number of international students has declined a massive 17% in recent years – primarily due to changes in visa regulation. The hearing surveyed strategies for better matching training with industry needs and encouraging more women to pursue STEM careers. As the U.S. has transformed rapidly to an information-based economy, employment in science, technology, engineering and math occupations has grown – outpacing overall job growth. In addition, in earlier research my colleague Radha Biswas and I found that a large portion of IT guest workers are the necessary conduit for offshoring IT work, because an offshore project requires about a third of the team to be onshore to work with the client, do requirements analysis, and liaise with the offshore team. STEM covers a diverse array of occupations, from mathematicians to biomedical researchers, and at degree levels from bachelor to Ph.D. 173 Workforce Grants for Michigan Grants to assist veterans, youth, displaced workers, and immigrants to enter, remain and advance in the workplace. America is in a race for high-tech supremacy with China. By comparison, three-quarters or more of graduates in health fields are hired into related occupations (see Figure 1). Among recent cohorts we have studied, there has been a significant and dramatic decline in top-performing STEM students who make the transition to STEM occupations. McNutt said the U.S. is “doing okay” on total R&D spending, but noted China has rapidly caught up and that the return of tight budget caps could cause significant damage. But in the face of growing public opposition to offshoring operations and layoffs, government and industry messaging about offshoring shifted from cost savings to the need for a talent search to compensate for a lack of sufficient supply of trained workers in the United States. It is in this context that it is possible to understand the genesis of the talent shortage claims. Examples of such reports include Into the Eye of the Storm: Assessing the Evidence on Science and Engineering Education, Quality, and Workforce Demand, published by the Urban Institute in 2007, and Will the Scientific and Technology Workforce Meet the Requirements of the Federal Government? Reviewing the empirical research in context, focusing on three key areas, may be useful for arriving at the facts needed to truly inform policy decisions about STEM-related issues. It is not clear what producing another 10,000 engineers would do, especially as fewer engineering graduates find engineering jobs and salaries are flattening for all but a few fields. It also seems clear that because evidence supposedly informs policy, the past failures of shortage predictions should serve as further caution to policymakers who may overlook the costs of ill-founded conclusions. Melville, NY 11747 ; tabulations by authors. Apple surely could have outbid other companies for the 8,700 industrial engineers it said it needed, or it likely could have just matched wages and attracted them because of its reputation and perceived “cool” factor. Importantly, this may well be a strength of the U.S. system: It allows those who are not passionate about the field to exit early and those who take longer to find their calling the ability to pursue it, and to bring with them a broader educational background. Using the most common definition of STEM jobs, total STEM employment in 2012 was 5.3 million workers (immigrant and native), but there are 12.1 million STEM degree holders (immigrant and … Even for STEM graduates who do not go into STEM fields, it is claimed that they will still do better economically than non-STEM graduates. Gallagher elaborated on this problem in his written testimony. The hearing was the latest in a series across Congress to broach the topic of how to better protect universities from being exploited by foreign nations, particularly China. Click to enlarge. In terms of labor market impact, particularly in hightechnology industries, a further distinction arises from the difference between the permanent domestic labor force (native and immigrant, citizen and permanent resident alike) and the temporary guest worker labor force. STEM Workforce Science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) careers include a wide variety of job titles within fields such as engineering, health care, and the physical and social sciences. He said the U.S. would benefit from systematically monitoring the research strategies of other countries as it can no longer afford to be a leader in all areas. 2003–2004 Baccalaureate and Beyond Survey (B&B) While every state was short STEM workers in 2015, the shortage was particularly acute in North Dakota and South Dakota, where employers listed 87 and 71 STEM positions, respectively, for each unemployed STEM worker. The expansion in STEM-related industries has exposed a shortage of qualified labour, particularly females. The suggestion by the president’s Jobs and Competitiveness Council that the nation’s economy is hampered by a shortage of engineering graduates also earns doubt. McNutt referenced recent data from the National Science Foundation indicating that international enrollment in U.S. science and engineering degree programs dropped 6 percent between 2016 and 2017. Representing the industry perspective, Khan emphasized how federally funded research at universities trains the technical workforce on which companies rely. Sign up for the Issues in Science and Technology newsletter to get the latest policy insights delivered direct to your inbox. And read what others are saying in our lively Forum section. As my colleague Leonard Lynn and I have argued, we need a new global innovation strategy to achieve collaborative advantage with rising technology powers. In contrast, many policymakers are promoting much narrower policies to promote an inflow of high-skill guest workers, even proposing such actions as awarding automatic green cards to any foreign STEM graduate of a U.S. university. Perhaps even more telling, despite decades of supposedly low performance by U.S. students, the world has seen no credible competitors to the nation’s innovation regions (Silicon Valley in California, Route 128/Kendall Square in Massachusetts, Research Triangle Park in North Carolina, the biopharma corridor of New York and New Jersey). us-leadership-in-science-hearing-2019.jpg But unlike the IT industry, petroleum companies stepped up the wages offered to new graduates by 40% over five years. And five years later, a follow-up report by committee chair Norm Augustine likened a perceived deepening of these problems to a Category 5 storm capable of wreaking untold destruction on the nation’s economy. According to new findings from STEM Learning, the largest provider of STEM education and careers support in the UK, the shortage is costing businesses £1.5 billion a year in recruitment, temporary staffing, inflated salaries and additional training costs. 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